Pit Pass Radio

by Steve Sharbutt
Cup Scene Daily, January 30

I don’t like to make predictions. They usually come back to haunt me. Case in point? For 2006 I had Greg Biffle winning it all and Elliott Sadler 2nd. Whoops…

OK, I’ll give it another shot for 2007 because I like looking like an idiot in public.

Juan Pablo Montoya will win a Nextel Cup race this season. Yes, I know this is a long shot given his steep learning curve, but Juan has too much talent not to have a good opportunity to run in the top five at some of these races and, if things go just right, to win. He obviously had a great drive in Ganassi’s car in the Rolex 24 and really seems to adapt to new situations quite quickly. Best chance? Sonoma, Indy or Watkins Glen. Don’t be surprised if he runs very well at the plate tracks too.

NASCAR will make a dramatic announcement sometime after the midway point of the season that the COT (Car of Tomorrow) will be used at ALL the races in 2008 instead of waiting until 2009. It was interesting to read the comments of Petty Enterprises legend Dale Inman, in a column written by my editor Greg Engle. Inman commented that right now teams are having to maintain two separate sets of parts and pieces, one set for the current car and one for the COT.

“None of those parts are interchangeable with the cars we have now,” he said.
“It would have been better if NASCAR would have said ‘on February 18th
(the date of the season opening Daytona 500), we will all race this car (the
Car Of Tomorrow).”

I think that as soon as the teams begin to run the COT at several of the tracks this year and start to get a handle on the adjustments the cars need to suit their drivers and start building new cars, most teams will be in favor of scrapping the current car in order to focus on the COT. Richard Petty added that, “If NASCAR said tomorrow that we’d have to run on three wheels, next week we’d be running on three wheels.” I agree. The teams are having to adjust anyway, so why not go ahead and make the switch? The three year rollout may have seemed like a good idea on the surface, but I think NASCAR will decide that having the teams maintain the current car as well as the COT will be a waste of money. Other than safety, one of the primary benefits of the COT was supposed to be to save the teams money, right?

Denny Hamlin will experience a sophomore slump. The one downside to over achieving in your rookie season is trying to top it. I don’t believe he can, at least not this year. Who would have expected Hamlin to win the Budweiser Shootout, to sweep of the races at Pocono, earn a Chase birth and a third place finish overall? Not many. Now with 12 available slots, Hamlin may still make the Chase, but barely.

Here’s my prediction for the top ten finishers in the championship for 2007. Don’t be upset if I don’t have your driver ranked high enough… I’m probably wrong.

1. Tony Stewart - Stewart rebounds from being locked out of the Chase last year and claims his 3rd Cup title.
2. Kevin Harvick - This team is hitting its stride and has focused a lot of effort on the COT. Look for the newly painted #29 cars in victory lane multiple times in 2007.
3. Jimmie Johnson - JJ won’t successfully defend his title, but he and Chad Knaus will be in the hunt ‘til the very end (as normal).
4. Jeff Gordon - The ‘Drive For Five’ stalls again.
5. Carl Edwards - “Reunited and it feels so good…”
6. Kasey Kahne - The #9 team will continue to be strong on the mile and a half tracks.
7. Greg Biffle - New crew chief Pat Tryson will help Biffle get back in the Chase with a much better start to the season than he had in ‘06
8. Dale Earnhardt Jr. - Contract talks et al will keep the Bud team from achieving all their goals in ‘07.
9. Jeff Burton - Cingular? AT&T? Whatever the color of the car, the #31 gets a solid top ten finish.
10. Juan Pablo Montoya - OK, OK, but don’t be surprised if this happens.

Oh, one more thing: Michael Waltrip’s new Toyota teams will struggle mightily in 2007. Let’s see…new manufacturer, new buildings, lots of new toys with which to build racecars and lots of money. Good right? Add to that two drivers whose best days behind the wheel unfortunately are behind them, and a raw rookie. Not so good. The combination of 1999 champ Dale Jarrett (with his past champion’s provisional) and former Ryan Newman head wrench Matt Borland will perform the best of the three in 2007, but even they won’t reach the top 20. The #55 and #00 will struggle just to make the races from week to week.

On the plus side, I’m sure they’ll sell lots of pizza, hamburgers and car parts.